Summary: In January 2025, the fluorochemical industry
grew, with refrigerant prices rising. R32, R125, and R134a increased by 1.16%,
2.38%, and 3.53% respectively. Air conditioning manufacturer contract prices
rose 6%-12% monthly in Q1 2025, and household AC production surged 35.6% yearly
in February, showing strong demand for refrigerants. Fluoropolymer prices were
low due to capacity expansion, but industry leaders still showed earnings
growth.
I.
Refrigerant Prices Show Robust Upswing, Supply-Demand Dynamics Tightening
January
Price Rise; Long-Term Contracts Set Stage for Price Increase
The refrigerant market demonstrated a
surge in both volume and prices in January 2024. According to CCM Market Data,
the prices of third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a increased to
RMB 43,500/t (approximately USD
5,958.90/t), RMB 43,000/t (approximately USD 5,958.90/t), and RMB 44,000/t (approximately
USD 5,958.90/t), respectively,
with month-on-month gains exceeding 1%. Moreover, the first quarter of 2025
witnessed further increases in long-term contract prices for air conditioning
manufacturers, with R32 and R410 cash ex-factory prices (including tax) growing
by 6.13% and 11.78% respectively, indicating downstream manufacturers'
long-term optimism about refrigerant prices.
Quota Policy Tightening Coupled with
Rigid Demand; Supply-Demand Imbalance Evident
In 2025, production quotas for
second-generation refrigerant (R22) were further reduced, while the total quota
for third-generation refrigerants remained at baseline levels. However, robust
demand from new air conditioner installations and maintenance, coupled with
growing foreign trade orders, tightened supply-demand dynamics. Industry Online
data revealed that February's household air conditioner production totaled
15.93 million units, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 35.64%,
with April's production maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of 12.6%. This
sustained downstream demand provided rigid support for refrigerant prices.
Refrigerant Boom Cycle Likely to
Continue
In the short term, strong foreign trade
orders combined with post-Chinese New Year inventory replenishment demands
could propel refrigerant prices higher in the first quarter. In the long run,
with the global upgrade of air conditioner energy efficiency standards and the
release of maintenance market demands, the refrigerant industry is poised to
maintain its high-growth cycle.
II. Fluorochemical Firms Accelerate
Layout; Industry Consolidation and Technological Innovation Progress in
Parallel
Leading Firms Anticipate Earnings
Growth; Industry Chain Synergy Evident
Industry leaders such as Juhua
Corporation and Sanmei Corporation, leveraging their comprehensive industry
chain layouts, have consistently benefited from refrigerant price hikes. Public
information indicates that Juhua Corporation's 2024 net profit grew by 10.06%,
with its subsidiary Jinlun Company achieving a net profit of 16.65 million yuan
and maintaining high capacity utilization. Additionally, Yonghe Corporation
anticipates a 30.66% to 52.43% increase in its 2024 net profit, primarily due
to the commissioning of its new energy material project and the expansion of fluorocarbon
chemicals business.
Capacity Expansion and Technological
Advances Propel Industry Upgrade
Guided by policy, fluorochemical firms
are accelerating their extension into high-end sectors. Fujian Del Technology
plans to invest RMB 1.945
billion (approximately USD 266.44
million) in an electronic-grade chlorine trifluoride and
semiconductor material project, further entering the fluorinated electronic
chemicals segment. Yonghe Corporation intends to raise RMB 1.736 billion (approximately
USD 237.81 million)
through private placements to enhance its new energy material industrial park,
aiming to boost fourth-generation refrigerant and high-end fluoropolymer
capacities. Meanwhile, the industry is consolidating inefficient capacities and
optimizing supply structures, as evidenced by the moderation in capacity
expansion speeds for fluoropolymers like PTFE and PVDF, with prices gradually
stabilizing.
Risks and Challenges: Policy Changes and
Raw Material Fluctuations
Despite a positive industry outlook,
risks such as adjustments to refrigerant quota policies, fluctuations in raw
material fluorite prices, and weaker-than-expected demand necessitate
vigilance. Furthermore, the fluoropolymer sector still faces overcapacity
pressures, requiring firms to enhance profitability through differentiated
competition.
Conclusion
Driven by both policy constraints and
market demands, the fluorochemical industry in 2025 maintained a high-growth
refrigerant sector, while the fluorinated materials segment gradually
stabilized and rebounded. Leading firms, leveraging technological prowess and industry
chain advantages, are poised to benefit continually from industry concentration
trends. In the future, with accelerated refrigerant iterations globally and
deepened domestic substitutions for high-end fluoromaterials, the
fluorochemical industry could usher in a new growth cycle.
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